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I agree 100% with your analysis. Leslyn Lewis will be #1 on my ballot, Derek Sloan #2 and Erin O’Toole #3 to prevent #nowaymackay from winning; MacKay will not be on my ballot. I have read many comments under Lewis’ pro-life messaging from people who are “pro-choice” and they share that they really like her and can support those 4 “no hidden” agenda policies. In an interview Lewis stated she’s not going to be the “king maker” in this election but she will be the queen because according to her campaign’s calculations she has sold enough memberships to win… provided every membership purchased through her website and other means rank her #1. If pro-life will rank Lewis and Sloan 1 and 2 (in whatever order) we will be doing the right thing because of the ranked and weighted ballot system. The only thing I may disagree with your analysis is how well MacKay will do… it won’t surprise me if he falls off the ballot first. He will not have any down-ballot support to take the win. I think there are enough common sense Conservative members who realize if MacKay wins the leadership about 40% of their voter base won’t show up for the election and they will loose support to Wexit and PPC.
1) Be ready to be disappointed. Your personal feelings and those of individuals close to you do not necessarily represent the majority of Conservative party members across the country. (Learned from personal experience).
2) If Derek Sloan becomes the leader, the Conservatives will have a very difficult time attracting anyone other than their base. In this moment in history, the public at large is primed to detect and stamp out racism everywhere and Sloan’s comments regarding Dr. Tam will not/do not play well.
3) Conservatives need more than their base to win elections.
4) Wexit is a regional movement that will never come to power in the Federal government (just like the Bloc).
5) Wexit / PPC only serve to split the Conservative vote.
6) PPC got killed the last election and are irrelevant.
7) Wexit may spoil the one region with strong Conservative support.
8) Always be careful what you wish for – it might happen.
I agree with all of what you’re saying, and am not sure how it conflicts with anything I said on the podcast. I support Lewis, but she is not the front-runner. Sloan will not be leader, and his campaign is too strident for this country. On 3, this is why I believe that the policies Lewis puts forward are important–they have broad appeal. I also think the PPC are irrelevant. This is not a libertarian country. I’ll admit to not having taken a look at any impact Wexit might have.
I don’t have problems with your analysis … I was meaning to reply to Jodi R.’s analysis. It seemed to me she was too caught up around Peter McKay and the potential to erode the base, in her opinion. However, it seemed to me that she was not so much basing her opinion on data as much as her personal friend group.
It truly is shocking how different personal friend groups can be from the general populace. I suppose that feeds into a bias of sorts wherein the individual believes in group thoughts and beliefs are more popular than they actually are.
I fully support Leslyn but I fear the deep entrenched MacKay following. However lists not forget that he used to be a liberal. So what is he now an opportunist? Let’s go with someone who is honest and true to her values
Dr. Leslyn Lewis supports should vote for her and leave 2nd, 3rd, 4th picks blank. Sloan supporters should have Lewis as their 2nd pic. If Sloan is the 1st to be eliminated those who picked Lewis as their 2nd pick will go to Lewis.