New studies are bringing a string of very bad news for the transgender movement

By Jonathon Van Maren

“Follow the science” we are constantly told. “Follow the science,” unless we’re talking about gender ideology, babies in the womb, the consequences of promiscuity, and anything else that relates to the untouchable Sexual Revolution. But when it comes to “transitioning” kids, the narrative is starting to crack. Consider a few recent examples.

When trans activists acknowledge the existence of detransitioners at all, they insist that there are very few of them and that the number of people who desist or de-transition are statistically insignificant. A new study published by Oxford Academic—which is receiving very little coverage—indicates that the de-transition rate may be up to 30%:

A comprehensive review of medical records found that after 4 years, 30% of young people discontinued "gender-affirming" hormones.
"It is the first US study to challenge the notion that detransition is rare." – Levine/Abbruzzesehttps://t.co/7umrDfkG7Ohttps://t.co/Xr3Oef8dKz pic.twitter.com/LY2krwW691

— Christina Buttons (@buttonslives) May 5, 2023

Read the study here. At some point, legislators and medical professionals are going to have to grapple with this emerging data. In Europe, they already are—and have been consistently rejecting all forms of transition for minors (a UK NHS report even recommended against “social” transition).

A study published last year in the Journal of Sexual Medicine examined the Department of Defense medical records of 3,754 trans-identified adolescents and 6,603 siblings who did not identify as transgender. The study found that “not only were minors with severe mental illness allowed to embark on experimental medical sex changes, but also that prescriptions for anti-psychotic drugs actually increased after hormonal interventions were initiated” and the findings revealed “no improvement in mental health after commencing hormone interventions and an increase in prescriptions for psychotropic medication.”

Despite constant claims by the transgender movement that children who are refused sex changes are at risk of suicide, suicidal ideation increased in those who were embarking on transgender “treatments.”

Finally, a report from the Washington Post indicates that the GOP legislators pushing back against the transgender agenda have public opinion pretty firmly on their side. 57% of Americans believe sex is determined at birth, including 53% of those 18-34 years old; 68% oppose puberty blockers for children between the ages of 10 and 14; 77% oppose discussing gender identity with children in kindergarten to Grade 3; 66% say “transgender” athletes should not be able to compete against those of the opposite sex.

I’d be interested to know who the respondents for this poll were. While the numbers on support for policy seem right, I find it hard to believe that only around half of Americans between 18 and 34 believe that sex is determined at birth. If that is true, these polling numbers aren’t particularly encouraging. I’m 34 and I can remember when even California was voting against same-sex marriage. If a decade and a half later nearly half of younger Americans think the sex binary is outdated, the Overton Window is moving even faster than I thought it was.

The other data sets, however, are going to get more difficult to ignore. Several de-transitioners have told me that there is a coming wave of kids who started to transition young—around 2010—and are now realizing it didn’t work. I profiled three of them for a review of The De-Transition Diaries for First Things. Their stories are aimed at the trans narrative like salvoes, and there’s no telling what impact that will have.